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The blog is a view of life, science, politics and education from an engineering perspective. As engineers, we are taught to view the world objectively. We can hope, believe and calculate a particular outcome, but natural laws are inflexible and pay no heed to who we are or what we believe. We must approach the objective dispassionately, while compensating for our own distorted perceptions. Balance is also a key element; balancing between the ideal and the pragmatic, balancing cost and functionality, balancing analysis with action, etc.
Scheduling routine critical self-analysis is the foundation to objectivity. If we do not fully understand and compensate for our own failures, tendencies, habits and skewed thought processes, we will not see the world as it is. Without a regular critical self-analysis we will see the world as we are and then fall prey to self-delusion.
Failure is a great teacher. When failure is coupled with perseverance, it produces the fruit of patience and humility. An engineer, fresh out of engineering school is typically set up for failure early and often. The failure breaks the new engineer of any ideas of self-importance, arrogance and book smarts. Only then can the new engineer be formed and molded into a productive element in the industry.
Thanks,
Bernie
Avoiding the fiscal cliff
Republicans do not want to raise taxes and the Democrats do not want to cut spending, thereby producing an impasse.
But there are more ways to resolve the impasse that are not being discussed. The feds could grant permits for energy exploration, refineries and LNG export terminals to finance their social programs using the proceeds from the energy sector.
Natural Gas
The US is swimming in natural gas. According to the Institute for Energy Research, our supply of natural gas is much larger than the demand. We could export it, but the export process requires the gas to be liquefied and loaded on specialty ships. Three permits have been filed with the Department on Energy in 2011, none of them have been granted yet. Five more LNG (liquefied Natural Gas) facilities for export are being planned. I have provided a web link below from Cheniere. They are anxious to build a $10 billion terminal for natural gas export.
http://www.caller.com/news/2012/sep/04/cheniere-files-permits-to-build-terminal-export/
In March 2012, the price of natural gas (delivered to residential customers, New York) was $2.27 per 1000 cubic feet.
http://news.yahoo.com/natural-gas-prices-drop-sharply-bulging-supply-162152920.html
In Japan, natural gas costs about $18 per 1000 cubic feet (According to Bloomberg). Our export market is primed and ready to run.
New sources of natural gas are being discovered. For example, Chesapeake grew virtually over night to become the second largest US producer of natural gas behind ExxonMobil. Chesapeake has stated that there are tremendous reserves of natural gas in the mid Eastern seaboard.
Gulf, deep water drilling
Deep water oil drilling in the Gulf could again be running at full operation. Some permits have granted for deep water platforms, but there are deep water drills sitting dormant in the Gulf following the moratorium on deep water drilling. The oil spill caused a drop in production by about 700,000 barrels of oil per day. At $90 per barrel this equates to $63 million per day in revenue that is lost. And this does not account for the thousands of energy workers that were laid off following the moratorium. Any new drilling should obviously proceed with the proper environmental precautions.
In 2012, the number of leases for deep water drilling has increased by 16% over any point in the previous 3 years. “Even if they’re up, there are not up as much as they would have been if it weren’t for the policies that this administration has in place ,” John Felmy, chief economist at the Washington-based American Petroleum Institute, said in an interview. “We would like to see even more.”
Shale Oil
Harold Hamm, who is the CEO of Continental Resources, says there's 24 billion barrels of oil in North Dakota's Bakken formation. So far, they have only tapped 40 million barrels. Continental Resources operates 24 rigs, each rig produces 500 -3000 barrels of crude per day. But there is a massive expansion of oil production in North Dakota.
Hess Oil just finished a $1.8 billion drilling operation in North Dakota and is producing 50,000 barrels of oil per day and by 2015 plans to be at 120,000 barrels per day.
Marathon Oil produces 25,000 barrels of oil per day, but they have 14 rigs under construction with completion dates planned in mid 2013.
A myriad of other oil producers are getting into production; Northern Oil, Newfield Exploration, Williston Basin, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Denbury Resources and others.
Likewise, the Eagle Ford shale in Texas oil production is also soaring. Oil production in the Eagle Ford was 4.3 million barrels during 2010. Just one year later it was almost 10 times more – 36.6 million barrels. By the end of 2012, the oil production figure will certainly be over 50 million barrels.
ANWAR
The oil and natural gas reserves in North Dakota, Texas, Eastern Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico pale in comparison to the reserves in ANWAR.
I am not saying that we have turned the oil spigot off. We are producing more oil than we had 10 years ago. But compared to the recoverable reserves (made available by the fracking process), we are only scratching the surface. Thousands of wells could go into production to supply oil and revenues to meet our spending habits. But the big point is that we could be the world’s major oil exporter. But I don’t know if we should be.
My fears
I am not sure what I fear more; a reduction in oil production with an increase in imports or an all-out expansion in drilling.
An all-out expansion will provide jobs and wealth, but also feed government’s insatiable demand for money. Could it produce a Chavez type of oil baron in the White House who buys election after election with promises of greater and greater percentages of oil revenue handed out like candy? Yes, it could.
The restriction of permits and production will cause the unemployment rate to stay high and inch us closer to the fiscal cliff, but limit the government’s ability to buy more votes than it already does.
A pile of money can cover a multitude of sins and bad decisions.
Money is power and power corrupts. Unfortunately, our government is already corrupt. The additional money will only serve to let it become authoritarian.
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45 Comments
Carl Hicks - Dec 01, 2012 12:09 AM
have proprietary rights over the chemicals they dump into the environment. How
can environmental effects be studied when ingredients are kept secret?
Bernie Ziebart - Dec 01, 2012 8:19 AM
From my understanding, they use hydrochloric acid or acetic acid and a lot of water. But it is used in very deep wells; something like 20,000 feet deep.
jhayett - Dec 01, 2012 8:37 AM
Regarding the “fiscal cliff.” I find it very disturbing that our country took it hook, line, and sinker, to reelect these same idiots who not only helped create this fiscal mess, some like Obama, single-handedly made it worse. Yet the same liberl democrats told America that if we vote them back in, they will fix it. Three weeks after those campaign lies gave Obama and his minions more power, they have shown they have no intention of fixing the fiscal mess of over spending. There were just enough Obama voters dumb enough to believe him.
Our already damaged debt ratings will be lowered again and as soon as this summer.
ahemmer - Dec 01, 2012 11:14 AM
I say the Republicans need to hold firm - NO tax increases. Besides, tax increases are just a tiny, tiny portion of this whole issue and they will solve nothing. What is the real problem is out-of-control government spending. And now Obama wants unlimited power to raise the debt-ceiling (bypassing Congress in the process, as well as the Constitution) - what a scary proposition and right up there with a dictatorship.
As for those tax increase demands - Obama has offered NOTHING in return to offer except the "promise" of future spending cuts. Obama has shown himself time and time again to be an outright liar (Benghazi anyone? a campaign promise to cut the deficit in half during his first term? shutting down Club Gitmo? increased transparency (that's a real laugher)? ...and the list goes on...). The Republicans better not cave to Obama's questionable "promise."
It is sad that the media is doing a very poor job of reporting exactly what is going on. They - as well as the president - will go on with their talking point that this will be all the Republicas fault. It isn't. It is the presidents. He IS the leader, although he has no clue how to lead. He isn't willing to work with the Republicans. He has shown this throughout the last four years. What will make him change now? He is happy that the U.S. will plunge over that fiscal cliff. It's just a quicker way to ruining the country and establishing a socialist agenda.
jman99 - Dec 01, 2012 1:51 PM
In a national security sense, you can have no better than oil independence. Once you are out of the middle east, you can turn your back on it and not even look at that sand box any more. It reduces your defence costs and also reduces the amount of money flowing out of the country. That money can now be invested rather than spent on oil abroad.
Fiscal cliff may not be such a bad thing. It would be much like loosing one's job: you rearrange your priorities and think about what's really important.
Pierre Del Norte - Dec 01, 2012 2:10 PM
You never cease to amaze me. Exactly where on God green planet do you come up with these utterly insane ideas?
Oh, wait - perhaps they come from the same minds that explained that it is impossible for for a woman to pregnant from a legitimate rape, or that the earth is only 6,000 years old, or maybe tax cuts for the rich create jobs?
How about this one - "Obama has offered NOTHING in return to offer except the "promise" of future spending cuts." It seems to me when Mitt was selling that same BS, you loyal republicans could not buy enough of it. Right Hemmer?
"...a Democrat/Socialists happiest dream:" - So, Hemmer, what is he? a socialist, or communist, or maybe a fascist? What is stopping you from calling him what you really, really want to call him - "An African-American President?" You know - one of "those people."
"What is the real problem is out-of-control government spending." - So hemmer, what exactly do you think is driving all that spending? The fact is Hemmer - You have absolutely NO IDEA what is driving those deficits. The only thing you know is what the RNC echo chamber spoon feeds you.
We don't have a spending problem in this country - We have a crisis in demand! And all those morons in the congress refuse to take-up Obama's jobs bill from last year.
And all you can do is put on your cheer-leading outfit and grab you pompoms and regurgitate all that smoke Boehner, Ryan and McConnell keep blowing up your backside!
WFB resident - Dec 01, 2012 3:17 PM
PDLS's do not consider somebody something unless they are hook line and sinker in
that way of thinking . Which is narrow minded ,but that is what makes them PDLS's .
Was it not the o who said that if we tax the rich we will not tax the middle class ? I
find it funny that we have raised taxes since ther o came in to office but our
economy is being down graded ! I for one have been planning to save my self, by
not working as much for others .
Since the PDLS's are to narrow minded to understand our economy . All I can do
is sit back and say " I told you so !" I will from now on . Conservatives have tried to
inform the public what the o is and will do . But they "feel" that they are correct .
Which in turn forces me to comply . So all that any thoughtful person can do now is
point out the o's stupidity and say "I told you so!" .lol...
Bernie Ziebart - Dec 01, 2012 10:26 PM
I had read the proposal that Geithner and Obama gave to the Republicans. It added a new stimulus spending package, eliminate a debt ceiling, increased taxes and gave unprecedented spending power to the president. Regarding spending cuts; the proposal only agreed to discuss it next year. I assume that this proposal was just an opening salvo and nothing serious.
Business owners have lost faith in the economy/regulation and these stimulus packages just won't change that. After the election my company president changed course and stated that the risk tolerance would be very low. The R&D budget and marketing budget have been significantly reduced. And the future plans were pared back. I just think that this is the new normal.
The tone of your post was a bit nasty. It is dangerously close to race-baiting. It is possible to disagree with the president and not be a racist. I am not opposed to a rigorous discussion, but use diplomacy to set up your arguments.
Pierre Del Norte - Dec 02, 2012 12:00 AM
I get you point. But I have to ask a simple question. Do you think any part of the extraordinary disdain the right has for President Obama has anything to do with race?
Just A QUESTION BERNIE.
Ever since the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the racial bigots of the south develop a coded language that appeared to be civil but was actually quite transparent, but really quite effective. Remember Willie Horton?
All those ole democrats FLED to the republican party. Today the Old South is solidly Red. Do you agree?
I find it incredibility interesting that the first African-American President is met with met with such abject disdain, particularly from the Anglo-Saxon suburban enclaves like Waukesha County.
And here is my reasoning - Since he has been President, Obama has been an illegitimate alien, a secretly practicing Muslim, a socialist, a communist, a fascist, and a whole range of other disparaging labels that are patently UNTRUE.
So Bernie - Please tell me if that is race bating. Am I just barking at the moon here Bernie? And Bernie - I do remember the 1960's. And visceral hatred is not easily overcome.
Pierre Del Norte - Dec 02, 2012 12:11 AM
The fact is , Hemmer is simply an authoritarian control freak, someone who accused me of being several different people, when in fact she had absolutely NO EVIDENCE to support her claim. But that is her spineless way of discarding dissenting voices.
A real piece of work.
ExToDResident - Dec 02, 2012 12:51 AM
I had asked before what branch of engineering you work in.
Don't worry I am not asking for a job. Just curious.
WFB resident - Dec 02, 2012 11:32 AM
from the right ! From the left ,I see racism all the time . Yet they pretend not to be .
All my years dealing with Righties , I have only met 1 racist that was a righty . I have
met many upon many that were lefties !
jhayett - Dec 02, 2012 11:34 AM
And when did you switch from graphic design and marketing to an engineering degree?
jhayett - Dec 02, 2012 11:36 AM
http://gopcapitalist.tripod.com/democratrecord.html
WFB resident - Dec 02, 2012 11:39 AM
Red. Do you agree?"
No !!! The south is red now but the true racists have moved to the big cities like
New York , Or tv shows like MSNBC ! They also have included another form of
racism . Not that it pertains only to race anymore but added being white male to the
forum . Somehow they link their racism with American white males and they justify it
! Since they are white it somehow is not a racial hate .
jman99 - Dec 02, 2012 12:28 PM
Where does he say that he did?
jhayett - Dec 02, 2012 1:24 PM
Pierre Del Norte - Dec 02, 2012 6:09 PM
"A US pres. is supposed to lead and negotiate for both sides and what is good for all." - Hayett
Yep, tried that - record number of republican filibusterers in the Senate.
Oh, and let's remember where a big part of this fiscal cliff came from. Remember those Bush tax cuts? Remember WHY the republicans set them up to expire in the first place?
"Thus why no lib can ever answer what Obama’s fiscal cliff disaster will do to grow jobs or the economy." - You are a real piece of work Hayett.
First - On what basis are you calling it the Obama Fiscal Cliff?
Second - Let's settle this issue once and for all. GIVING BIGGER TAX CUTS TO THE RICH DOES NOT CREATE a single JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you are a business owner - you are in business to sell your goods or services. When you sell more - Then you hire more people! You are not in business to "Create Jobs". You are in business to sell more of what you sell. You are simply the vehicle that supports job creation / job destruction.
Here it comes Jimmy - "The only thing that creates jobs is an increase in aggregate demand, or an anticipation of an increase."
Jobs are the result of an INCREASE IN DEMAND - AND NOTHING ELSE!!!!
Giving tax breaks to rich people doesn't INCREASE DEMAND. Why? - Because they are prone to save or invest it - NOT SPEND IT! PLUS - There are not enough of them to make a material difference in aggregate demand.
Middle class tax payers have a much higher propensity to spend their tax break! And, there are a hell of a lot more of them.
We have roads and bridges in this country that are falling apart. We have road builders in need of work.
My God you republicans - Why can't you put 2 and 2 together? It is called a JOBS BILL and it has been SITTING ON BOEHNER'S DESK SINCE LAST YEAR!!!
Are you really that dense? Or, just blinded by your rabid partisanship?
Bernie Ziebart - Dec 02, 2012 9:45 PM
When Obama became the president 4 years ago, I was happy for him and I wished him well. He talked a great bipartisan game and seemed fairly moderate. However, he did not govern according to my hopes, but rather my fears.
My disdain for him is based purely on issues. As you know, my biggest voting issue is the size of government. Did Obama expand government or did he shrink it?
Most of the Republicans that I know are not racist, but no not like Obama for the same reason why they didn't like Jimmy Carter; mishandling the economy and foreign policy. As for the names that Obama is called; Muslim and socialist, I prefer that the president is not called names but is judged by his actions. The contrary opinion is that Obama went to Islamic schools in Indonesia and may still have Islamic sympathies. And some also view Obamacare as socialized medicine; a big step towards socialism.
The real test will be 10 years from now; will we be closer to a socialist economy or a pure free market economy than we are today or 4 years ago. We need to look longer term to see the effects of decisions made today.
ExToDr,
Most of my career was spend in Electro-mechanical engineering; motors, relays, magnetics, coils, etc.
jman99 - Dec 02, 2012 9:53 PM
Most of my career was spend in Electro-mechanical engineering; motors, relays, magnetics, coils, etc. "
Shocking! ;-)