Why the Electoral College is necessary.
Currently there is a bill being presented by Democratic Representative Kelda Helen Roys (81st District), Assembly Bill #751, calling for a change in the way that Wisconsin's Electoral College votes are awarded. Specifically, Roys wants to see the winner of the nation's popular votes receive Wisconsin's ten electoral votes.
This is wrong. The Electoral College wasn't created without very serious thought behind it. Roys needs to read the Constitution and understand WHY our nation uses an electoral college in presidential elections.
Our Founding Fathers were amazing. The Constitution they wrote centuries ago, to guide our great nation, had the foresight and intelligence to address many of the current issues and problems we face today. When drafting the Constitution, the founders actually considered a direct popular vote, then dismissed it. They feared a popular vote would favor candidates from larger states, with larger populations. At the time they also debated allowing Congress to elect the President. That idea too, was shot down.
The Electoral College was the solution. And it exists in our Constitution to balance the rights of the individual states in having a say in electing presidents. The Electoral College addresses the fact that our country is made up of individual states. We are not one big state. On the campaign trail, presidential candidates are aware that they cannot target only certain states and/or cities with large populations if they hope to win. They have to campaign in the heartland - not just the left (oops!) west or east coasts.
If our candidates for President were chosen solely on a national popular vote, Wisconsin and the majority of midwest states wouldn't see a political candidate on the campaign trail. Why would such candidates bother? For the few electoral votes states with much smaller populations in the heartland could provide, a political candidate would be better off targeting Los Angeles, New York City and Chicago. Chicago alone has a larger population than our entire state! Big states with big cities would decide who our president would be. And that is where the problem lies with a "national popular vote."
The Electoral College provides a balance. It seeks to moderate those who may be too extreme for voters. For example, under our current system, it would be impossible for a few big cities with a specific political agenda or interest to force it's views upon a nation. The Electoral College promotes moderation.
From the National Review article: "Want a Real Constitutional Crisis?" by James R. Edwards Jr. (2/2/02) comes the following points:
"The electoral college fosters moderation and compromise. A candidate who could win the presidency by popular election alone would look very different from one chosen by a majority of all the state's electors. Not only the winner, but all presidential candidates would look less like Bush and Gore and more like Ralph Nader or Lyndon LaRouche."
Edwards goes on to state: "The candidates able to win the White House by a simple majority - or more likely, a plurality of the popular vote - would hold more extreme positions on more divisive issues.
For comparison, consider a typical House candidate and his state's U.S. Senate candidates. While Senate candidates must attract broad support from the diversity of the state's electorate, the more homogeneous House districts are represented by such liberals as Maxine Waters and such conservatives as Bob Barr. The campaign issues in a House race also reflects more localized, harder stances. Presidential candidates, on the other hand, hold more moderate positions on national issues. Thank the electoral college system for this."
As the Senate tempers the legislative impulses of the "people's house," so does the electoral college temper the extremes among the electorate. George Washington was said to have remarked, "We pour legislation into the senatorial saucer to cool it." The electoral college serves the same purpose in the selection of presidents."
Edwards mentions all the problems a "popular vote" would create including: "the nation would experience acrimony, extremism, factionalism, endless recounts, a weakened president elected by plurality, and the loss of important protections of minority rights. Every four years, we'd have a true Constitutional Crisis. If you liked the Florida recounts, you'll love direct presidential elections."
So if you don't want Los Angeles and New York City choosing our presidents for us in the future, contact your Wisconsin representatives to voice your opposition to Rep. Kelda Helen Roys proposed legislation - "The National Popular Vote Bill #751."
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26 Comments
Dustin_Klein - Feb 22, 2010 10:52 AM
For example, it's not just that people in the big cities will choose our president, as they didn't choose it in 2004 when Bush won by 3 million votes, but states such as Florida in 2000 winning an election while Gore won the popular vote.
The same thing would have happened in Ohio had they done the voting correctly. It could easily have gone for Kerry and he would have then been president. What would you have said then? I bet you would have said that Kerry stole the election and that Bush really was the victor. Just like you would have said if Gore had taken Florida in 2000.
referee33 - Feb 22, 2010 11:18 AM
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:38 AM
Support was 81% among Democrats, 67% among independents, and 63% among Republicans.
By age, support was 68% among 18-29 year olds, 62% among 30-45 year olds, 72% among 46-65 year olds, and 76% for those older than 65.
By gender, support was 80% among women and 61% among men.
By race, support was 72% among whites (representing 89% of respondents), 64% among African-Americans (representing 5% of respondents), and 58% among Others (representing 5% of respondents).
http://nationalpopularvote.com/pages/polls.php#WI_2008DEC
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:39 AM
Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential elections.
Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the state-by-state winner-take-all rule enacted by 48 states, under which all of a state's electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:42 AM
In elections in which the winner is the candidate receiving the most votes throughout the entire jurisdiction served by that office, historical evidence shows that there is no massive proliferation of third-party candidates and candidates do not win with small percentages. For example, in 905 elections for governor in the last 60 years, the winning candidate received more than 50% of the vote in over 91% of the elections.
If the National Popular Vote bill were to become law, it would not change the need for candidates to build a winning coalition across demographics. Any candidate who yielded, for example, the 21% of Americans who live in rural areas in favor of a "big city" approach would not likely win the national popular vote. Candidates would still have to appeal to a broad range of demographics, and perhaps even more so, because the election wouldn't be capable of coming down to just one demographic, such as voters in Ohio.
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:42 AM
Every vote would not be equal under the proportional approach. The proportional approach would perpetuate the inequality of votes among states due to each state's bonus of two electoral votes. It would penalize states, such as Montana, that have only one U.S. Representative even though it has almost three times more population than other small states with one congressman. It would penalize fast-growing states that do not receive any increase in their number of electoral votes until after the next federal census. It would penalize states with high voter turnout (e.g., Utah, Oregon).
Moreover, the fractional proportional allocation approach does not assure election of the winner of the nationwide popular vote. In 2000, for example, it would have resulted in the election of the second-place candidate.
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:48 AM
Under the current system, battleground states are the only states that matter in presidential elections. Campaigns are tailored to address the issues that matter to voters in these states.
Safe red and blue states are considered a waste of time, money and energy to candidates. These "spectator" states receive no campaign attention, visits or ads. Their concerns are utterly ignored.
The influence of minority voters has decreased tremendously as the number of battleground states dwindles. For example, in 1976, 73% of blacks lived in battleground states. In 2004, that proportion fell to a mere 17%.
The Asian American Action Fund, Jewish Alliance for Law and Social Action, NAACP, National Latino Congreso, and National Black Caucus of State Legislators endorse a national popular vote for president.
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:49 AM
If the President were elected from a single nationwide pool of votes, one would expect a recount once in 332 elections, or once in 1,328 years. The fact is that recounts would be far less likely to occur under a national popular vote system than under the current state-by-state winner-take-all system (i.e., awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each separate state).
Based on a recent study of 7,645 statewide elections in the 26-year period from 1980 through 2006 by FairVote, the probability of a recount is 1 in 332 elections (23 recounts in 7,645 elections). The average change in the margin of victory as a result of a recount was a mere 274 votes. The original outcome remained unchanged in over 90% of the recounts.
Under the current winner-take-all system, there are 51 separate opportunities for recounts in every presidential election. Thus, our nation's 55 presidential elections have really been 2,084 separate state-level elections. There have been five seriously disputed counts in the nation's 55 presidential elections. The current system has repeatedly created artificial crises in which the vote has been extremely close in particular states, while not close on a nationwide basis. Note that five seriously disputed counts out of 2,084 is closely in line with the historically observed probability of 1 in 332.
A single national pool of votes is the way to drastically reduce the likelihood of recounts and eliminate the artificial crises produced by the current system.
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 11:49 AM
The U.S. Constitution (Article II, section 1, clause 4) provides:
"The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States."[Spelling as per original]
The common nationwide date for meeting of the Electoral College has been set by federal law as the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December.
Under both the current system and the National Popular Vote approach, all counting, recounting, and judicial proceedings must be conducted so as to reach a "final determination" prior to the common nationwide date for the meeting of the Electoral College. In particular, the U.S. Supreme Court has made it clear that the states are expected to make their "final determination" six days before the Electoral College meets.
In addition, in almost all states, state statutes already impose independent (typically earlier) deadlines for finalizing the count for the presidential election. The U.S. Supreme Court has also ruled that state election officials and the state judiciary must conduct counts and recounts in presidential elections within the confines of existing state election laws.
It may be argued that the schedule established by the U.S. Constitution may sometimes rush the count (and possibly even create injustice). However, there can be no argument that this schedule exists in the U.S. Constitution, federal statutes, and state statutes; that this schedule guarantees "finality" prior to the meeting of the Electoral College in mid-December. This existing constitutional schedule would govern the National Popular Vote compact in exactly the same way that it governs elections under the current system.
Dustin_Klein - Feb 22, 2010 1:15 PM
richardwinger - Feb 22, 2010 2:26 PM
ahemmer - Feb 22, 2010 4:45 PM
Unless you are also a blogger known as "mvymvy" from March of 2009, you have plagiarised all of your comments, except the initial one.
And in regards to the supposed number of Wisconsinites who support such a bill, most people think it sounds great - and it does on the surface. But when one delves deeper and looks at reality, the flaws are apparent. Some Republicans were even in support of Roy's idea, until they thought more about it and the ramifications - then they dropped off! And the more people learn about it - the more they realize it isn't good for our country. (Sounds a bit like what is happening in the case of Obama - he sounded good at first, but the more people learn about him and his agenda - we realize how bad his policies and "hopes" are for the country!).
Big population cities will determine presidents for the entire country. That's the summary. That's what the Dems want, since the left and east coasts tend to be "blue" states. Wonder why they are starting this drumbeat now? Cuz they know they won't be able to win elections in the future based on what they are doing now unless they change the rules?
The bill is bad for America and the American voter. The votes of the heartland will be meaningless. Candidates won't care about our states at all. Re-read my blog. It highlights the many flaws of going with a popular vote. I thought it was pretty easy to understand.
kohler - Feb 22, 2010 7:56 PM
ahemmer - Feb 23, 2010 7:30 AM
Whatever.
Talk about mis-information. Ever notice what four states support this "national popular vote?" Hawaii, Washington, New Jersey, and Maryland. Hmmmm... are they perhaps....blue states? That's it. Four states. And I'd venture to say that once people check out the details behind the "national popular vote" movement, they will have a greater understanding of why we need an Electoral College.
I find it funny that anytime one questions what liberals are trying to do, we are somehow creating "fear." Isn't that what the libs cried about the government-power grab currently being discussed under the guise of "health care reform?" And how right we were about that! Sometimes a little fear is good - especially when it is accurate.
jmark - Feb 23, 2010 8:30 AM
The reason the founding fathers favored the electoral college is because communication traveled at the speed of horse back then. "A very good candidate could be popular regionally, but remain unknown to the rest of the country. A large number of regionally popular candidates would thus divide the vote and not indicate the wishes of the nation as a whole." Now that communication travels at the speed of light, we all have access to every word spoken by every candidate every day.
I'm with the Kohler family on this one.
Trent, SaveOurStates - Feb 23, 2010 11:23 AM
How's this: What other country is as geographically large, demographically diverse, politically free, and economically successful as the United States? Maybe the reason there is no country as successful as ours has something to do with our institutions that, understood or not, work to keep the nation politically unified and moderate.
jmark - Feb 23, 2010 2:33 PM
I'm not sure how you could misinterpret what I said ("The vast majority use direct election"). Of the 195 countries, 5 use the electoral college system, 33 use the parliamentary system, 41 monarchy, and 112 use direct election. The popular voting method seems to be the most popular.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_by_country
frustrated1 - Feb 23, 2010 3:29 PM
I do think that if you have to change something make the electoral votes proportional within the state at least that would force candidates to come to states like Wisconsin that are not usually considered battle ground states.
kohler - Feb 23, 2010 7:01 PM
Every vote would not be equal under the proportional approach. The proportional approach would perpetuate the inequality of votes among states due to each state's bonus of two electoral votes. It would penalize states, such as Montana, that have only one U.S. Representative even though it has almost three times more population than other small states with one congressman. It would penalize fast-growing states that do not receive any increase in their number of electoral votes until after the next federal census. It would penalize states with high voter turnout (e.g., Utah, Oregon).
Moreover, the fractional proportional allocation approach does not assure election of the winner of the nationwide popular vote. In 2000, for example, it would have resulted in the election of the second-place candidate.
kohler - Feb 23, 2010 7:05 PM
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 29 state legislative chambers in 19 states, including one house in Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon, and both houses in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington. These five states possess 61 electoral votes -- 23% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See www.NationalPopularVote.com