It's bracketology time for boys hoops!

Just because it’s not yet March doesn’t mean we can’t start thinking about March Madness.

With the seeding meetings this weekend in WIAA boys basketball, the postseason tournament is essentially on our doorstep, which is great news for people like me who love this time of year. Regional games begin in the first days of March.

Offering my poor man’s version of “Bracketology,” I’ve done my best to calculate the seeds in sectionals that affect area teams in Division 1 and 2. Friday’s games – the last batch before heading into the meetings –  aren’t included in my analysis, so these are definitely subject to change.

I’ve never been to a seeding meeting and can only guess what criteria each coach uses in assigning seeds. In Sectional No. 5 of the Division 1 brackets, several Lake Country teams are vying for the same spot at the state tournament. Here’s how the field might lay out::
 

• (1) Arrowhead (18-2), first round bye
• (9) Mukwonago (11-8) at (8) Sussex Hamilton (11-9)
• (12) Waukesha South (5-15) at (5) Waukesha West (15-5)
• (13) Kettle Moraine (4-16) at (4) Germantown (14-6)
• (14) Milwaukee Madison (2-15) at (3) Milwaukee Vincent (12-5)
• (11) Oconomowoc (10-9) at (6) Homestead (10-9)
• (10) Waukesha North (10-9) at (7) Cedarburg (9-9)
• (2) Menomonee Falls (16-3), first round bye

 The challenge of picking this field is that six teams have very similar profiles – Hamilton, Mukwonago, Waukesha North, Oconomowoc, Homestead and Cedarburg.

Of those six, I think Oconomowoc has a couple things going against it. One is that it doesn’t have a truly marquee victory, though it does have multiple victories against teams hovering around or slightly above .500. The other is that it’s the only Wisconsin Little Ten team in the batch. Coaches from the Classic 8 and North Shore – widely perceived as very difficult conferences – may be likely to promote their own squads in the seeding process and can safely say their intra-conference schedules are tougher than what the WLT has to offer.

Cooney getting a win over Waukesha South on Tuesday was crucial, and it keeps the Raccoons from dipping further … but I see OHS at the bottom of those six teams I mentioned.

Of Waukesha North’s nine losses, seven have come against teams with at least 14 wins, but the Northstars don’t really have a marquee win either (splitting with Mukwonago might be the best accomplishment, and the loss to MHS was by 20 points).

Mukwonago has a couple bad losses in conference but has been playing very well lately and does have a win over Waukesha West. The Indians also have convincing responses to those bad losses in the second go-round of league play. Mukwonago has not been blessed with a tough nonconference schedule, which will lead many to say the winning record is deceiving.

Sussex Hamilton will probably wind up in the 8-9 game, though the Chargers have struggled down the stretch and recently incurred a loss to Green Bay Southwest (7-11). As with Oconomowoc, coaches may point to a weak Greater Metro Conference this season and downgrade the Chargers based on a lighter in-conference schedule.

Cedarburg is the only team on my list with three truly quality wins (Neenah, Nicolet, Germantown), and none of the losses have come against teams with losing records. However, two of those losses have come against Homestead, which gives HHS the edge in a head-to-head comparison. The Highlanders have zero bad losses (the closest being a setback against Oconomowoc) and a win over Germantown among other decent victories.

Kettle Moraine has struggled this season and will almost certainly draw the 13 seed, but with the top two teams drawing byes, there aren’t likely to be all that many mismatches in the first round. The Lasers have the capability to give teams a push.

Arrowhead could theoretically lose the top seed with a loss Friday at Catholic Memorial, but a 1-2 pairing with Menomonee Falls seems almost automatic. Many people will anticipate a rematch at the Al McGuire Center at the sectional final. The two teams met there just after Christmas, with Arrowhead surviving in overtime.

Milwaukee Vincent has just enough firepower to edge Germantown for the No. 3 seed – I wasn’t wowed by Germantown’s nonconference schedule, and Vincent can also say it plays in a tough conference. The schools could flip come seed time.

Big matchup to keep an eye on: Waukesha West against Waukesha North on Friday. A win for West would cement its top-five seed status and maybe threaten for a No. 4. A win for North pushes them much higher on this list, possibly as far as hosting a first-round game.

Division 2
Pewaukee plays in a positively unforgiving Sectional No. 4, with defending state champion Wisconsin Lutheran just one of the many powerhouses in the field. The division seeds by regional, so a quick rundown of what I expect in Pewaukee’s field of 8:

• (8) Fort Atkinson (2-18) at (1) Catholic Memorial (18-2)
• (5) Lakeside Lutheran (13-5) at (4) St. John’s Northwestern (12-5)
• (6) Whitewater (8-12) at (3) Pewaukee (17-3)
• (7) Jefferson (3-16) at (2) East Troy (16-3)

I smell a second-round rematch between Pewaukee and East Troy – the Pirates led earlier this year headed into the fourth quarter before the Trojans rolled in the nonconference meeting. That win is partially the reason why East Troy earns the higher seed here.

Jefferson buried Fort Atkinson by 20 this year, which will make those two easy to seed out.

St. John’s beat a Watertown Luther Prep team that beat Lakeside Lutheran by 20. It’s probably not a fair comparison, but I think it’s one of the factors that will give St. John’s the home game in the 4-5 matchup. If there’s a major upset, it could be St. John’s in the second round against Catholic Memorial, though the Crusaders are positively oozing with the senior experience St. John’s lacks.

Next week, I’ll try the same thing with the girls basketball brackets.