Bracket busting, Part II: The girls turn

After a pretty unsuccessful attempt to predict the seeds for the WIAA Division 1 boys basketball postseason, I decided the best remedy for my shortcomings was to dust myself off and try again.
It’s the girls’ turn now, with weekend seeding meetings set to determine the postseason fate for many local hoops squads. I’ve done my best to calculate the seeds again in Division 1, Sectional No. 5, which includes a host of teams in the Lake Country Publications coverage zone, as well as Pewaukee’s regional in Division 2.

As I mentioned last week, I’ve never been to a seeding meeting, but each coach brings their own set of determining factors into the meetings, so I suppose my guesses are as good as anyone’s. This layout doesn’t take into account the last batch of games before the meeting, scheduled for Feb. 25 and 26.

Here’s my stab at the Division 1 sectional:

• (1) Milwaukee Vincent, first round bye
• (9) Arrowhead (8-11) at (8) Sussex Hamilton (11-9)
• (12) Menomonee Falls (5-14) at (5) Waukesha South (12-7)
• (13) Waukesha West (3-15) at (4) Kettle Moraine (15-5)
• (14) Waukesha North (3-17) at (3) Germantown (16-4)
• (11) Homestead (5-14) at (6) Cedarburg (12-7)
• (10) Milwaukee Madison (12-8) at (7) Oconomowoc (11-8)
• (2) Mukwonago, first round bye

1. Even though Milwaukee Vincent lost on Tuesday, the Vikings are safely entrenched as the No. 1 seed and will be the overwhelming favorite to advance out of this sectional as they pursue their fourth consecutive state title.
2. One of the most compelling battles is for the No. 6 seed between Cedarburg and Oconomowoc, and I ultimately used the head-to-head criteria (Cedarburg beat Cooney by a narrow 2 points earlier this year) to break the tie. Both teams have similar profiles, but the Bulldogs have the added advantage of two other North Shore allies in the seeding meeting.
3. In looking at the eight losses between Mukwonago and Germantown, the only loss against a losing team belongs to the Warhawks, which dropped a game to Arrowhead earlier this year. Mukwonago also has better wins – including a victory over a Muskego team whose profile took a boost when it defeated Vincent on Tuesday. Victories over Pewaukee, Kettle Moraine and a nail-biting loss to New Berlin Eisenhower should give the Indians the edge for the No. 2 seed and critical first-round bye.
4. It’s hard to really know how the coaches will look at Milwaukee Madison, which has a much better record than a 10-seed typically would. The City, save for the very top teams, is notoriously bad, which could devalue Madison’s record. They have given a push twice to small-school Destiny, a high-scoring program with an 18-1 record, and it’s truthfully unclear to me how good Madison could be.
5. Nobody should want to meet fifth-seeded Waukesha South. The Blackshirts defeated Janesville Parker earlier this year, nearly knocked off Mukwonago and then shocked Brookfield Central on Tuesday. I don’t see them overtaking Kettle Moraine for that fourth seed, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see South in the sectional.
6. A good rematch is brewing in the 8-9 game if Arrowhead and Sussex Hamilton meet again. The Chargers fell Feb. 15 in a nonconference game, and Arrowhead plays in a tougher conference, but Hamilton probably has enough cushion in its better record to get the home game. Hamilton has really tested a couple excellent teams in Milton and Germantown. Arrowhead has been bothered by injuries this year, but the team did defeat Germantown earlier in the season.

Division 2
I went into this fully expecting Pewaukee to get the top seed, but a closer look told me Lakeside Lutheran deserved the nod:

• (1) Lakeside Lutheran (16-2), first round bye
• (5) Whitewater (7-13) at (4) Jefferson (11-8)
• (6) East Troy (8-11) at (3) Catholic Memorial (12-7)
• (7) Fort Atkinson (5-15) at (2) Pewaukee (18-2)

1. The top seed is pretty crucial here, because it means a first-round bye and either Pewaukee or Lakeside Lutheran can miss a second-round meeting with Catholic Memorial, a team that has fared very well in a conference of much bigger schools.
2. Pewaukee probably has the weakest loss between the two top teams (New Berlin West), and the Woodland Conference is not blessed with a lot of talent. The Pirates win over New Berlin Eisenhower is monumental, but Lakeside began the season with three wins over teams with at least 15 wins and later on the road against 17-3 Deerfield.
3. A crucial matchup scheduled for Thursday, with Lakeside facing one of the top teams in the state, Columbus. Lakeside Lutheran lost the first battle but could absolutely sew up the top seed with a win. With a loss, Pewaukee is back in play.
4. East Troy has one more win than Whitewater, and the two teams have split in the regular season, but the Trojans have really stumbled down the stretch, with a loss against the Whippets included. Thus, Whitewater gets the higher seed.